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LDV-DCM-1060

Leading Decision Quality Under Uncertainty

02:51:25·intermediate·3 modules·10 lessons

Leadership and ManagementDecision Making
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About this course

Lead major-project decisions with reference-class realism instead of inside-view optimism — forecast with the outside view, shape the room before scope locks, structure uncertainty so nothing hides, and plan for many futures with one plan — all lived through the Ardenmoor Crossing Programme.

What you will cover

  1. 01Module 1 · Seeing the Decision Clearly

    • Introduction: The Day Ardenmoor Said Yes
    • The Forecast You Already Trust Too Much
    • Think Slow, Act Fast: Earning the Right to Move

  2. 02Module 2 · Shaping and Structuring the Uncertain Problem

    • Shaping the Room Before the Scope
    • Frame It So Nothing Hides: Structuring the Uncertain Problem
    • Many Futures, One Plan: Scenario Thinking Under TUNA

  3. 03Module 3 · Making It Stick

    • The Outside View as a Leadership Habit
    • Project Leadership Challenge: The Ardenmoor Crossing Programme
    • Case Debrief: What Ardenmoor Was Really Teaching
    • Final Assessment

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