Bias in Megaprojects: Why Smart Teams Make Bad Project Decisions

What you will cover

1. 01Part I · Understanding Bias

   • Introduction — The Bias Map
   • Why Megaprojects Are Bias Magnets
   • How Human Judgment Fails
   • Individual, Team and Organisational Bias

2. 02Part II · The Named Biases

   • Anchoring and the Planning Fallacy — The Early Number
   • Strategic Misrepresentation — Deception at the Gate
   • Normalisation of Deviance — When a Miss Becomes Normal
   • Escalation and the Commitment Fallacy — After the Money Is In
   • Bias in the Room and the Controls

3. 03Part III · Building Bias-Resistant Projects

   • Premortems and Red Teams
   • Reference-Class Forecasting — The Outside View as a Tool
   • Decision Journals
   • Challenge and Escalation Systems

4. 04Part IV · Integration and the Capstone

   • The Megaproject Bias Audit — Gate by Gate
   • Integrated Simulation — The Biased Megaproject
   • Final Assessment